Estimate Tasks Better With a Stopwatch

You’ve probably promised “just an hour” for something that ate the afternoon. Your brain is great at stories and terrible at clocks. A stopwatch fixes that. Run the Stopwatch during exploratory work and mark splits when the task turns a corner. In a week, you’ll have a lightweight baseline that makes “how long will this take?” a calm question, not a guess.

Getting Started

Pick a representative task—something you do often enough that a better estimate will help next week. Press start. Each time the work turns a corner, hit split and write one honest line about what changed: scaffolded the module, wired the button, wrote the first paragraph. When you stop, add the minutes and a tiny note about context and interruptions. You’re building a personal base rate one lap at a time. Once you have a few baseline numbers, plan using the Countdown timer to match your typical block sizes, or use Pomodoro when you want automatic recovery baked in. For recurring tasks, multiply by quantity and add a buffer for context switching.

A small base‑rate table:

Task type	Avg mins	Notes
Write unit test	14	familiar codebase; stable env
Draft paragraph	11	outline ready
Wire button + action	18	new component

FAQs up front:

• How many samples do I need? Even three to five per task type help; update as you go and baselines will improve.
• What about interruptions? Log them separately; if they’re common, plan shorter blocks (25/5) or use Countdown timeboxes.
• Can I use Stopwatch for teams? Yes—be transparent it’s for calibration, not surveillance; share aggregate ranges, not individual metrics.

Open the Stopwatch and time your next representative task. Add a lap at each milestone.

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Calibrate in a Week

Pick three to five common task types and measure three samples each. A simple set could be: write a unit test, implement a small feature, refactor a tiny module, and write a short doc. For each run, record the task, complexity (S/M/L), minutes, interruption count, and any notes. Compute the median per task type and plan with those medians—they’re more robust to outliers than averages.

Turn Data Into Plans

Use your base rates to size work and shape your day. For backlogs, multiply base rate by count and add a 15–30% buffer for integration and context switching. For day planning, fill your calendar with Countdowns that match your base rates and protect a 25/5 to log learnings. In weekly review, update base rates if a tool or process change shifts the numbers. Convert base rates into simple ranges (p10–p50–p90) and plan critical work with p50 or p90 depending on risk. For example, if “write unit test” is 10–14–20 minutes, then for six tests plan 84–120 minutes with a buffer. You can even simulate a few “days” in a spreadsheet by sampling from your ranges to see likely totals and plan with confidence. As patterns emerge, let Stopwatch inform when to choose Pomodoro for sustainable pacing versus Countdown for fixed sprints.

Logs and Worksheets

An example log:

Date	Task	Complexity	Laps	Total (min)	Notes
Mon	Unit test	S	3	12	familiar code
Tue	Refactor	M	4	28	paused for review
Wed	Draft doc	S	2	13	outline ready
Common pitfalls and fixes: If you start by measuring rare work, you’ll learn a story that doesn’t repeat; begin with tasks you meet every week. Don’t let interruptions pretend to be progress—log them separately and fix the obvious ones in your environment. Sample across a couple of projects so your numbers travel with you. Choosing lap boundaries is simple heuristics: in software, think scaffold → implement → tests → review; in writing, outline → draft → edit → polish; in data, query → clean → model → visualize. And remember the cost of switching: if each context swap burns two to five minutes, five switches can erase 10–25 minutes—group similar tasks to save time, which your logs will confirm as fewer tiny laps and a cleaner flow.

A quick backlog sizing worksheet:

Item	Count	Base rate (p50)	Total (min)	Buffer	Planned block(s)
Unit tests	6	14	84	+20	3× 30m Countdowns
Docs pages	2	25	50	+10	2× 30m Countdowns

Use Stopwatch to reveal true task sizes and set WIP limits that reduce switching. Finish one block before pulling the next; your logs will show smoother flow.

Teams and Culture

When teams adopt Stopwatch, clarify the intent: improve planning and reduce stress, not measure people. Share only aggregate ranges and learnings (for example, “writing tests takes ~12–18 minutes in this codebase”), and celebrate improvements that come from process changes like faster setup or better scaffolds. A simple case study: before, “bug fixes always take an hour” was the story. After timing five bug fixes with laps, the median was 22 minutes and p90 was 35. Planning triage in 30‑minute Countdowns with one overflow slot increased throughput and lowered stress.

More how‑tos and comparisons: laps for practice and notes, a deep‑work focus cadence, and which timer fits which task are all linked here: laps guide, deep work 101, and timer comparison.

More questions, answered briefly:

• How often should I recalibrate? Quarterly, or after major changes in tools or process.
• What if my times fluctuate a lot? Use medians and ranges; plan with ranges and choose smaller blocks.
• Is this micromanagement? No—the goal is better planning; you decide what to measure and how to use it.